Piece by: JOHN MUCHANGI

22 November 2023

• The Coast remains the hardest-hit, with some parts of Mombasa City still under water.

• He especially warned the low-lying Tana River county to prepare for possible heavy downpour in the next one week.

The unrelenting rains, which have killed about 70 Kenyans and displaced hundreds, will now spread to central and western Kenya, the weatherman predicts.

The Kenya Meteorological Department predicted heavy showers and strong winds could bring flooding to already soaked parts of the Coast, just days after floods in Mombasa caused serious damage and several deaths.

The Coast remains the hardest-hit, with some parts of Mombasa City still under water.

An analysis by the Met department shows the top 10 stations with the heaviest rainfall in the last one week are all from the three coastal counties of Mombasa, Kwale and Kilifi.

“The highest seven-day rainfall total was recorded at Mtwapa Meteorological Station,” Dr David Gikungu, the head of meteorological department, said.

The trend is expected to continue.

He especially warned the low-lying Tana River county to prepare for possible heavy downpour in the next one week.

“Some parts of Tana River and Lamu counties may receive heavy rainfall,” he said in a new seven-day forecast that ends on Monday.

He said rainfall will soak the entire country although large pockets of Turkana county will be spared.

“Isolated storms and heavy rains are likely to occur over the highlands east of the Rift Valley, the south-eastern lowlands, the Coast and north-eastern Kenya,” he said.

The detailed forecast shows that Ukambani and regions near the Coast will all soak in rains.

In Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita-Taveta counties, morning rains are expected over few places but spread further in the afternoon and night.

“Heavy rainfall is expected in some parts of Makueni and Kitui counties,” Gikungu said.

A few places in north-eastern Kenya (Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo counties) will have morning rains that will spread in the afternoon.

“Heavy rainfall is expected in some parts of Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo and Garissa counties,” the Met boss said.

The same is expected in central Kenya, including Nairobi.

“Some parts of Murang’a, Nyeri, Kiambu, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Meru counties may receive heavy rainfall,” Gikungu said.

Areas around Lake Victoria and Rift Valley highlands (counties of Kisii, Nyamira, Nandi, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Busia, Migori, Narok, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans-Nzoia, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet and West-Pokot) will have afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur over several places.

The current enhanced rainfall is a result of the El Niño phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which drives rains into East Africa.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns globally.

However, the enhanced rains in Kenya may only last until January, when the short rains season normally ends.

“The probability for above-normal rainfall is enhanced in the Indian Ocean north of the equator and extends towards the eastern coast of Africa and into the Greater Horn of Africa, where along the equator it extends further towards western Africa,” WMO said in a statement.

According to WMO, while El Niño events often receive the most global attention, it is not the only climate driver that is important for potential rainfall outcomes in East Africa between September and December.

Some meteorologists say the Indian Ocean Dipole, which refers to the warming and cooling of the Indian Ocean waters, may be more important than El Nino for eastern Africa.

A positive IOD considerably increases the chances for highly above-average rainfall in eastern Africa (eastern Kenya, Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia).

The most recent notable effect of positive IOD was observed in October-December 2019 when it led to increased rainfall over most parts of Kenya.

Furthermore, when both the IOD and El Niño are in positive phases, they typically lead to enhanced rainfall, as demonstrated by the widespread flooding caused by the positive IOD and El Niño event in 1997.

The current rains and floods have killed about 70 Kenyans , according to the Interior ministry.

“I want to appeal to Kenyans not to take chances when it comes to flood waters. Take great caution. When our officers tell you to vacate flood areas, please comply, and if you don’t, we will force you so that we can save lives,” Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki said.